Can the blockbuster high-level meeting between China and the United States change the current situation of a sharp decline in the number of Chinese students studying in the United States?

According to a report by the mainstream domestic official media on November 2023, 11 local time in the United States, after the world-renowned China-US high-level meeting, the two sides agreed to promote and strengthen dialogue and cooperation between China and the United States in various fields, including further increasing flights in early 15 and expanding exchanges in education, international students, youth, culture, sports, and business circles. Will this play a positive role in promoting the Chinese market in the United States?

01. The scale of China's study in the United States has regressed by 10 years?

According to the statistics of Open Doors 2023, the latest official authoritative report on studying in the United States, in the 2022/2023 academic year, the total number of Chinese students studying in the United States will be 289,526, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year.

This is a decrease of 2019,2020, or 372 percent, from the peak of 532,8 Chinese students in the 3/22 academic year, and has regressed to the level of the 2013/2014 academic year.

02. The global new crown pneumonia epidemic has led to a significant decline in Chinese students studying in the United States?

In the 2020/2021 academic year, there were 317,299 Chinese students studying in the United States, a year-on-year decrease of 14.8%, which is roughly the same as the 15% decline in the total number of international students studying in the United States, apparently as a result of the weakening of global student mobility caused by the pandemic.

In the 2020/2021 academic year, the number of Chinese students studying in the United States decreased by 5,5 from the historical peak, and studying in the United States suffered a rare landslide. From the 2020/2021 academic year to the 2022/2023 academic year, the Chinese market in the United States has not been able to shake off the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, which is contrary to the trend of a sharp rebound in global student mobility.

In the 2022/2023 academic year, the total number of international students studying in the United States exceeded 105.7 million, an increase of 11.5% from the previous academic year, which is the fastest growth in the number of people studying in the United States in the world in 40 years.

The 2023/2024 academic year is also the first academic year for Chinese students studying in the United States, and the number of Chinese students studying in the United States is expected to grow, ending the previous "three consecutive declines" (2020/2021, 2021/2022, 2022/2023 academic years), but the growth rate depends on another influencing factor.

03. International relations is an important indicator of China's market in the United States?

In addition to the epidemic factor, international relations have a great impact on the Chinese market in the United States.

From the 2017/2018 academic year to the 2019/2020 academic year, the growth rate of China's overseas Chinese market in the United States slowed down significantly, of which the 2019/2020 academic year increased by only 0.8% year-on-year, the smallest increase in 11 years.

During the same period, the growth rate of the total number of international students studying in the United States also slowed down. The number of international students at U.S. universities in the 2019/2020 academic year was 1,075,496, down 1.8% year-on-year and the first decline in nearly 11 years.

The Open Doors 2019 report exposed the main reasons for the decline in international students at U.S. universities: feeling unwelcome in the U.S., high personal safety risks, difficulty finding employment, and increasing difficulty in obtaining visas or being denied visas.

The isolationism and unilateralism pursued during the Trump administration (2016-2020) have had a huge impact on U.S. study abroad policy.

At the end of July 2021, the United States officially released "A Renewed US Commitment to International Education," which began with the first sentence "The United States cannot afford to be absent from the world." stage.), which is obviously a reflection and public denial of the previous study abroad policy.

04. Does the recovery of China's study abroad market depend on China's study abroad market?

When the global novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic is no longer the main reference variable for overseas planning, the sensitivity of Chinese study abroad families to international relations will greatly affect the decision to study abroad.

In fact, before this high-level meeting between China and the United States, the US study abroad policy had undergone fundamental changes.

In late July 2023, the National Export Strategy (NES) formulated by the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that U.S. education and U.S. study abroad have become officially focused export industries for the first time in history.

In the 2022/2023 academic year, international students contributed US$390 billion (2 billion yuan) to the U.S. economy

In the public statement of the NES, the US officials realized that although the United States is still the world's largest study destination, its market share is shrinking, and it is facing challenges from the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada and other countries and regions.

According to the data collected so far, the number of international students studying in the United States in the 2023/2024 academic year is projected to increase by 8% year-on-year to a record 114.<> million.

In December 2020, China's Ministry of Education released official data showing that the total number of Chinese students studying abroad in 12 reached an all-time high of 2019,70 (there are no official updates for 35, 2020, 2021, and 2022).

It should be noted that the data for 2019 (basically corresponding to the 2019/2020 academic year) is still the level reached before the global pandemic, when the number of Chinese students in the United States was 37,25, accounting for 53% of China's total study abroad.

Considering the pivotal role of studying in the United States in China's study abroad market, it is difficult for the size of China's study abroad market to reach the pre-epidemic level when the Chinese study abroad market has not yet recovered.

The high-level meeting between China and the United States will be a positive signal for the improvement of international relations and the promotion of the study abroad policy. In the 2023/2024 academic year, the Chinese market in the United States is likely to show signs of "stop loss", and whether the market recovers or not still needs to pay attention to the trend of international relations and the judgment trend of Chinese study abroad families.